Dear Colleagues:
Knowledge is power in times of uncertainty. I want to share where we are….
It is impossible to forecast, with any degree of certainty, the specifics as to how COVID-19’s impact will play out in our economy. However, I do know this – the likely scenarios for the Columbus economy are not good and will require federal, state, and local stimulation to rebuild businesses’ balance sheets and turn things around for our most vulnerable workers. Compounding any forecasting are the questions around spread, duration, and how fear will alter consumer behavior. Financial outlooks will change as a result of definitive guidance on the rapidity of COVID-19’s spread.
The impact of COVID-19 needs to be assessed from both a “top-down” and a “bottom-up” approach. From the top-down, it is evident that the existing spread of the virus will reduce GDP through at least the 2Q, both globally and in the U.S., and we anticipate declines in discretionary spending (e.g. restaurant spending, consumer purchases), shocks in the financial markets, and a dampening within our most affected industries.
From the bottom-up, the COVID-19 epidemic will impact every sector of the Columbus economy with closed businesses, school closures, travel disruptions, empty restaurants, and canceled events, conferences, and tourism. Already, small businesses and hourly workers are facing economic crisis because of this viral pandemic.
We’re working two angles right now to provide answers relevant to Columbus.
First, we’re analyzing the impacts to-date and triaging our industries and employees most at-risk. Over the next few days, we’ll start releasing dashboards that will help you, our businesses, and our social service agencies make more informed decisions. Second, we’re making recommendations for action, specifically looking at Federal stimulus options, the use of relief funds for small business, local banks’ lending plans for small business working capital, and fee mitigation/delayed payment options.
Stay tuned for more data releases. If we act deliberately, we can minimize the harmful economic impacts of COVID-19 and maintain/restore health to our Columbus economy.
Knowledge is power in times of uncertainty. I want to share where we are….
It is impossible to forecast, with any degree of certainty, the specifics as to how COVID-19’s impact will play out in our economy. However, I do know this – the likely scenarios for the Columbus economy are not good and will require federal, state, and local stimulation to rebuild businesses’ balance sheets and turn things around for our most vulnerable workers. Compounding any forecasting are the questions around spread, duration, and how fear will alter consumer behavior. Financial outlooks will change as a result of definitive guidance on the rapidity of COVID-19’s spread.
The impact of COVID-19 needs to be assessed from both a “top-down” and a “bottom-up” approach. From the top-down, it is evident that the existing spread of the virus will reduce GDP through at least the 2Q, both globally and in the U.S., and we anticipate declines in discretionary spending (e.g. restaurant spending, consumer purchases), shocks in the financial markets, and a dampening within our most affected industries.
From the bottom-up, the COVID-19 epidemic will impact every sector of the Columbus economy with closed businesses, school closures, travel disruptions, empty restaurants, and canceled events, conferences, and tourism. Already, small businesses and hourly workers are facing economic crisis because of this viral pandemic.
We’re working two angles right now to provide answers relevant to Columbus.
First, we’re analyzing the impacts to-date and triaging our industries and employees most at-risk. Over the next few days, we’ll start releasing dashboards that will help you, our businesses, and our social service agencies make more informed decisions. Second, we’re making recommendations for action, specifically looking at Federal stimulus options, the use of relief funds for small business, local banks’ lending plans for small business working capital, and fee mitigation/delayed payment options.
Stay tuned for more data releases. If we act deliberately, we can minimize the harmful economic impacts of COVID-19 and maintain/restore health to our Columbus economy.
Megan N. Kilgore
City Auditor
City Auditor